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Modals express how certain we are about something. "Must" shows strong certainty (positive), "can't" shows strong certainty (negative), and "might/may/could" show possibility.
He mustn't be at home, his car is gone.
He can't be at home, his car is gone. — Use "can't" for strong negative certainty, not "mustn't."
She might to be late.
She might be late. — Never use "to" after a modal verb.
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might